METHODOLOGY · PROPSCOUTR SCORE v1.1

How we decide
which deals are actually deals.

The PropScoutr Score is an uncapped index that ranks every active SoCal investment property listing by seller motivation, equity position, price behavior, and deal quality. Most deals score below 100; the strongest stacked-signal deals can exceed it. Here is the full formula — every input, every weight, every decision band. No black box.

PropScoutr Score Formula — v1.1
Score = PropensityIndex(P) + Σ Tier 1 Signals × 2 + Σ Tier 2 Signals × 1 + ARV Cushion Bonus + Price Reduction Points + DOM Staleness Points + Listing-Language Points
Uncapped — the strongest deals can exceed 100 · Minimum 0 · Re-scored nightly against fresh data

See it in action: Deal Anatomy Episode 001 — Dana Point Condo (Score: 89) →

THE FOUR INPUT LAYERS
Every score is built from four independent data layers.

Each layer captures a different dimension of deal quality. None of them alone is sufficient. Together, they tell you whether a motivated seller is sitting in a deal-priced property — or just a slow-moving one.

Layer 01 — Foundation
Propensity Score
The Propensity Score is a composite index generated by PropScoutr's data model — evaluating the seller's financial profile, ownership history, equity position, and situational factors into a single rating that reflects how likely a given property is to transact at a motivated price. It is the single largest contributor to the final score, and intentionally so: we believe that seller motivation at the individual level is the primary predictor of deal quality — not signal count, not DOM, not list price. A high-Propensity property clears the field before a single public signal is considered. A highly-signaled property with a low Propensity score is a property that looks motivated on paper but isn't.
Contribution: PropensityIndex(P) — primary score driver
Layer 02 — Motivation Signals
Seller Signal Stack
PropScoutr tracks eleven seller motivation signals derived from public records, title data, and MLS metadata. Signals fall into two tiers based on the strength of motivation they indicate. Tier 1 signals (Notice of Default, Short Sale, REO, Auction, Bankruptcy, Foreclosure) reflect legal or financial pressure with a defined timeline — the seller is operating under external constraints, not personal preference. Tier 2 signals (Probate, Trust, Conservatorship, HUD-Owned, Third-Party Approval) are reinforcing indicators of reduced emotional attachment or administrative mandate to sell.
Contribution: Tier 1 signals +2 pts each · Tier 2 signals +1 pt each
Layer 03 — Deal Quality
ARV Cushion
A motivated seller in an overpriced property is just a motivated seller. The ARV Cushion measures the spread between the all-in acquisition cost (offer + estimated rehab + closing/carry) and the after-repair value of the property. Deals where the all-in cost is below 80% of ARV receive a bonus. The bonus scales with the cushion: more spread = more points. This ensures that high-signal deals in thin-margin markets don't rank above lower-signal deals with genuine equity upside.
Contribution: Up to +5 pts based on the asking/ARV spread
Layer 04 — Market Behavior
Price Reductions · Time on Market · Listing Language
Price reductions are the only seller motivation signal visible to all buyers — which is why we weight them separately and in context. We score reductions on depth (how far the asking price has moved off the original list price) and recency (a documented cut in the last 30 days). Time on market adds staleness points at the 60- and 120-day marks — a seller still listed at day 121 is recalibrating to a market that won't meet them at their anchor. Finally, distress language in the listing itself (vacant, as-is, needs work, motivated) adds at most a single point — listing keywords are corroborating evidence, never a driver.
Contribution: Reductions up to +4 (depth + recency) · DOM staleness up to +2 · Listing language max +1
THE 11 SIGNALS
Full signal taxonomy, tiered by weight.

Every signal reflects a public-record or data-layer fact about the seller's situation. None of them are opinions. Each one adds to the score based on the strength of motivation it indicates.

TIER 1
Pre-Foreclosure (NOD)
Notice of Default recorded. The seller is operating on the lender's timeline, not their own. Strongest individual signal.
TIER 1
Probate / Estate Sale
Property is being liquidated through probate. Executor has a fiduciary duty to sell — and limited patience for drawn-out negotiations.
TIER 1
Trust-Owned
Title vested in a corporate trust or family trust. Reduced emotional attachment; trustee selling under administrative mandate.
TIER 1
Tax Delinquent
Property has unpaid tax liens. Seller facing escalating penalties and potential county action — creates defined urgency window.
TIER 2
High Equity
Seller has significant equity position — room to negotiate without going underwater. Flexibility for a motivated seller is leverage for a prepared buyer.
TIER 2
Absentee Owner
Owner mailing address does not match property address. Reduced emotional attachment; ongoing carrying cost sensitivity without occupancy benefit.
TIER 2
Free & Clear
No mortgage on title. Seller has maximum price flexibility — any offer is a net gain. Signals an owner with low anchoring to a specific number.
TIER 2
High Debt / ARM
High loan-to-value or adjustable-rate mortgage increasing carrying cost pressure. Seller's hold strategy gets more expensive each month they wait.
TIER 2
Long DOM
Cumulative days on market significantly above submarket average. PropScoutr tracks cumulative DOM — we do not reset when a listing is re-listed.
TIER 2
Price Reduction
One or more documented price reductions. Scored additionally in Layer 04 based on reduction count, depth, and velocity of cuts.
TIER 2
Corporate / Trust Ownership
Entity ownership without full trust classification — LLC, LP, or corporate seller. Typically institutional decision-making with less personal attachment to price.
Signal stacking matters more than any individual signal. A property with three Tier 2 signals is a stronger buy signal than a property with one Tier 1 signal at the same propensity. The full picture — foundation + signals + cushion + price behavior — is what produces an accurate score. Looking at any single layer in isolation produces false negatives and false positives in both directions.
ON EVERY DEAL PAGE
Every signal explained. Every risk surfaced.

You don't get a black-box score. Every deal page breaks down exactly why it scored, what each signal means for you as a buyer, and what to verify before submitting an offer. Sample rows below — the real ones look just like this.

Sample — Why this scored

Notice of Default HIGH urgency

Seller may be under time pressure to avoid foreclosure.

Verify: Foreclosure timeline, title, payoff amount, and ability to close before the sale date.

Long Days on Market MEDIUM urgency

Extended market exposure means seller has already adjusted expectations.

Verify: Original list price, reduction history, and willingness to entertain offers below ask.

Price Reduction MEDIUM urgency

Seller has moved off original price — likely open to further negotiation.

Verify: Total reduction amount and days between latest reduction and today.

Sample — Risks to verify

Risks to verify

High motivation does not mean low risk. Confirm each item below before submitting an offer.

Condition: heavy rehab scope
Heavy Fixer — budget for rehab before submitting an offer.
Court-supervised sale
Additional approval steps may extend close. Confirm timeline expectations with the broker.
Title and liens
Standard due diligence — pull preliminary title before submitting an offer.
Permit history
Not verified — check city records for unpermitted additions, conversions, or pool/ADU work.

Every deal page on PropScoutr is structured this way. No deal hides behind a number.

DECISION BANDS
What each score range means for action.

The score is not a ranking for ranking's sake. Each band maps to a specific buyer action recommendation. Here is how to use the number.

90+
★ Feature-Worthy
Multiple high-weight signals, ARV cushion confirmed, price behavior consistent with motivated seller. Deal math supports an offer significantly below ask. This range is where we route Active Buyers directly to a licensed broker. If you see a score in this band, act — these deals don't stay active long once the seller gets a realistic offer.
ACTION → Active Buyer routing · Broker contact within 1 business day
70 – 89
Buy
Strong motivation signal presence with solid ARV cushion or confirmed price behavior. Offer math works at a meaningful discount from ask — but may require more diligence on specific signal type or market conditions. These deals appear in the weekly Hot List and are the core of the PropScoutr deal flow.
ACTION → Weekly Hot List · Standard broker routing available
55 – 69
Watch
Moderate motivation indicators — may be one or two Tier 2 signals with high propensity, or one Tier 1 signal without supporting cushion. Deal may pencil if priced more aggressively. Included in the Hot List at lower priority; worth watching for a price reduction that pushes it into Buy territory.
ACTION → Monitor · Flag for follow-up if price drops
< 55
Pass
Low motivation signal density and/or ARV cushion below threshold. May be a decent listing at market price, but does not meet the criteria for a deal with motivated-seller leverage. PropScoutr focuses on deals, not listings — these properties are excluded from the Hot List.
ACTION → Excluded from Hot List
TRANSPARENCY POLICY
What the score tells you — and what it doesn't.

The PropScoutr Score is a motivation and deal quality signal. It is not an appraisal, a guarantee, or a substitute for due diligence. Here is exactly where its accuracy begins and ends.

What we measure What it tells you What it doesn't tell you
Propensity Score Likelihood the seller will transact at a motivated price, based on their financial and situational profile as of the last data sync. Whether the seller will accept your specific offer, or how they will respond in negotiation.
Motivation Signals The presence of legal, financial, or situational pressure on the seller. All signals are sourced from public records, title data, or MLS metadata. The severity of the seller's situation. A NOD at day 10 is different from a NOD at day 110. Your broker provides context.
ARV Cushion Whether the deal math works at the target acquisition price, based on comparable closed sales and estimated rehab scope. The exact ARV — comparable sales are an estimate, not an appraisal. Rehab scope requires a physical inspection to confirm.
Price Reduction Signal That the seller has moved off their original anchor, how far they have moved, and how quickly. What the seller's true floor is. Price reduction history is input data, not a negotiation outcome.
PropScoutr Score (composite) A ranked, comparable measure of deal quality and seller motivation across all active listings in our coverage area at the time of scoring. A guarantee of any return, transaction, or outcome. All real estate transactions involve risk. All scores reflect data as of last sync date.
Propensity Score
✓Likelihood of motivated-price transaction. ✗Whether seller accepts your specific offer.
Motivation Signals
✓Presence of legal/financial pressure — sourced from public records. ✗Severity. A NOD at day 10 ≠ day 110.
ARV Cushion
✓Whether deal math works at target price. ✗Exact ARV — comparables are an estimate, not an appraisal.
Price Reduction Signal
✓Seller has moved off anchor, how far, how fast. ✗The seller's actual floor price.
PropScoutr Score
✓Ranked, comparable measure of deal quality across all active listings. ✗A guarantee of return or transaction outcome.
Score ≠ recommendation to make an offer without due diligence. The PropScoutr Score tells you where to focus your attention in a market of hundreds of active listings. Your buyer's broker, physical inspection, title review, and HOA document review tell you whether to proceed. The score opens the door. The diligence process confirms what's on the other side of it.